Hydro

Hydro production is the hardest series this site forecasts, and its the least reliable. The forecast is statistical, learning relationships between generation and slow-moving conditions: reservoir and river-flow state, cumulative precipitation around the main catchments, and residual load, rather than simulating how plants are actually run. In reality reservoir hydro is largely price-driven (operators store water when prices are low and release it when they are high), so the single biggest driver of day-to-day output is invisible to it.

Treat the forward bars as a rough estimate of the production level and regime, not a precise day-by-day prediction — errors can be large. There can still be genuine signal here (precipitation and residual-load forecasts do carry information for some zones), but read with even more caution than the other pages.